Fairfield, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

719
FXUS61 KILN 041406
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1006 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Waves of low pressure will result in more rounds of showers and
storms, bringing the prospects for heavy rain and potential flooding
into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Active weather pattern continues across the Ohio Valley around the
periphery of an anomalously strong mid level ridge centered off the
southeast coast. At the surface - a front remains to our south across
the TN Valley.

Low level southerly jet which resulted in widespread showers and
embedded thunderstorms north of the south front across ILN/s southern
FA overnight is shifting east. Expect a brief break or lull in pcpn
with low level forcing weakening as the jet shifts east.

Another low level jet will approach from the southwest later this
aftn with elevated front (frontogenesis) shifting north into the
area. As this favorable forcing develops expect additional shower
and thunderstorm development with the elevated front - as it moves
northward later this afternoon. With anomalously high PWATS, the
threat for moderate to heavy rain will continue and shift north
across the area.

Have continued previous forecast thinking trending fcst temperatures
and dewpoints toward a consensus model raw blend. Highs will range
from the mid/upper 50s north the mid 60s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
The wet pattern will persist into the weekend.

For tonight, operational and convection allowing models initially
suggest that precipitation will try to shift more toward the
northwest at first as a wave of low pressure approaches from the
west/southwest. This will warm sector some of the area as the frontal
boundary to the south finally begins to push to the north. For the
overnight period, convective evolution, coverage, and movement become
somewhat chaotic (and thus some level of uncertainty) as the surface
low ripples to the northeast, allowing a cold front to make inroads
from the west/northwest. It`s plausible that some convective line
segments may make their way east/southeast. There could be an
isolated threat for a strong or severe storm with gusty winds.
Otherwise, synoptic winds will increase from the south and southwest
with gusts pushing into the 20 to 25 mph range. Temperatures will
warm for most into the overnight hours with the increased southerly
flow. Again, moderate to heavy rain will be a threat, especially in
thunderstorms.

On Saturday, a mid level trough is forecast to dig southeast into
the Great Lakes. Favorable upper level jet ascent will join an
advancing cold front to the southeast to result in more widespread
showers and thunderstorms. With fairly decent shear and increased
warming (increased instability), some storms could be strong to
severe along and ahead of the front. Best timeframe will be in the
afternoon and evening hours. Again, moderate to heavy rainfall will
be a threat. Temperatures will actually begin to drop across the west
in the afternoon as CAA begins to ensue. Highs will range from the
lower 60s northwest to the upper 70s southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers and storms will continue into Saturday evening, adding
additional rainfall to an already saturated environment. Rainfall
from Saturday into Saturday night will likely be the most impactful
overall, not only adding to the overland flooding, but also
exacerbating rivers already in flood. Precipitation will transition
over to just showers overnight with CAA increasing from the
northwest. In fact, a few wet snowflakes may be observed in our far
northwest counties late. Lows will range from the mid/upper 30s
northwest to the mid 40s southeast.

On Sunday, precipitation will gradually shift off to the
east/southeast, finally taking the heavier rainfall out of the
region. It will be chilly with highs ranging from the lower 40s
northwest to the lower 50s southeast.

A weak surface ridge will briefly visit the area Sunday night, bring
a brief respite of dry weather. Lows will drop into the lower to mid
30s.

Another digging mid level trough and associated cold front will move
back into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Monday, bringing a
chance of showers. Highs are forecast to be in the 50s ahead of the
front.

The passage of the front Monday night will mark change to much
colder weather for a period. By Tuesday morning, lows will be in the
lower to mid 20s with highs on Tuesday only warming into the 40s

High pressure will pay a visit to the region Tuesday night, moving
east of the region on Wednesday. Cold lows in the 20s will begin to
rebound into the 50s on Wednesday.

Precipitation chances will increase once again on Thursday with the
next weather system poised to affect the area. Temperatures will
return to normal by then.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For today, frontal boundary will remain near and/or south of the
Ohio River. More mid level energy in the southwest flow aloft will
bring another wave of focused low level jet energy which will allow
an elevated front to begin advancing to the north first. This will
again become a zone for focused showers and thunderstorms. Conditions
will continue to be MVFR/IFR.

For tonight, convective movement and new convective development are
a little uncertain as models struggle to capture it. It appears that
the low level jet will become more focused at first across our
northwest. Then, as a surface wave of low pressure and a cold front
approach from the west, showers and thunderstorms should begin to
shift and move back to the southeast. MVFR/IFR conditions will
persist. Surface winds overnight will increase from the south and
southwest and will become gusty in the lower 20 knots as the surface
front that was near the Ohio River lifts north. In addition, the
increasing low level jet will likely bring a period of LLWS.

OUTLOOK...Periods of showers and/or thunderstorms will occur into
Sunday. This will result in MVFR/IFR conditions from time to time.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-
     080.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Hickman